Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1086
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jun 15 2023 23:25:16

ACUS11 KWNS 152325
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152324=20
OHZ000-160030-

Mesoscale Discussion 1086
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0624 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023

Areas affected...portions of northern Ohio

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 310...311...

Valid 152324Z - 160030Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 310, 311
continues.

SUMMARY...Strong storms including a persistent supercell may
continue to pose an isolated severe risk for a few more hours across
northern Ohio. Damaging winds, hail, and perhaps a tornado are
possible.

DISCUSSION...As of 2320 UTC, regional radar analysis showed a
cluster of strong to severe storms over southern Lake Erie, and a
persistent supercell ongoing across Ottawa and Sandusky counties in
northwestern Ohio. Ahead of a mid-level speed max, these storms have
intensified over the last hour with several reports of large hail
and a confirmed tornado. The severe risk may continue for another
few hours as storms continue eastward along the southern shore of
Lake Erie into north-central and northeastern OH. Around 1000 J/kg
of MLCAPE and 40-50 kt of effective shear observed from area VADs
will continue to support updraft organization with a multi-cell and
supercell mode. Storm organization is especially likely near the
coast where the lake breeze may result in low-level updraft
enhancement. Damaging winds appear to be the most likely threat
given relatively modest surface dewpoints in the upper 50s F.
However, with the persistent supercell already ongoing, some risk
for large hail may continue. A tornado will also remain possible
especially along the lake breeze where low-level shear and surface
vorticity will be enhanced.

...Lyons/Grams.. 06/15/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!9T0lHjKFkcll3coLODN1djVCGwffuk-jdMua39ggoBz9-p-EYodp-n1eDNbcbzPwaaH-i-gjS=
TsEZD12Kl3y4A06MZM$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...

LAT...LON   40968366 41118382 41478345 41978295 42048188 42128140
            42108099 41918089 41628089 41338097 40738250 40758326
            40878353 40968366=20


=3D =3D =3D
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