Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1085
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jun 15 2023 22:56:47

ACUS11 KWNS 152256
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152256=20
FLZ000-ALZ000-160100-

Mesoscale Discussion 1085
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0556 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023

Areas affected...Portions of the Florida Panhandle

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 308...

Valid 152256Z - 160100Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 308
continues.

SUMMARY...The severe weather threat will continue over the next few
hours across the Florida Panhandle as storms continue to move
southward slowly.  The most likely severe-weather threat this
evening will be damaging winds.

DISCUSSION...Mesoanalysis still indicates an unstable airmass along
the Gulf Coast with sufficient shear to support an organized severe
threat this evening.  The overall convective trend has been toward a
linear mode, which would favor a damaging wind threat. However,
storms in the western Florida Panhandle have maintained a
semi-discrete mode with weak midlevel rotation.  Given the favorable
low-level shear indicated in local VWPs, a tornado and isolated
severe hail cannot be ruled out.  Over the next few hours, storms
will continue their slow southward progression ending the severe
weather threat.

...Jirak/Grams.. 06/15/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!5mHVtMTPryNTaAUAIttH-ERNCq8YpRAUSAMA6eaw-b55Ytx4VOZ3U1WZ6lKvjNAZ512WQviu1=
1PjwA2xwF8oOXmxvi8$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TBW...JAX...TAE...MOB...

LAT...LON   31008766 30858647 30398515 30218391 29908307 29498282
            29398307 29508334 29798358 30058405 29918449 29718494
            29838526 30198576 30358649 30378712 30408758 30498797
            30698797 31008766=20


=3D =3D =3D
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