Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1084
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jun 15 2023 22:33:46

ACUS11 KWNS 152233
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152233=20
TXZ000-160000-

Mesoscale Discussion 1084
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0533 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023

Areas affected...central and North Texas

Concerning...Tornado Watch 309...

Valid 152233Z - 160000Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 309 continues.

SUMMARY...Additional storm development/intensification is likely
through the remainder of the afternoon into this evening with
organizing supercells. Tornadoes, large to giant hail and damaging
winds remain possible.

DISCUSSION...Across portions of central and North TX, strong to
severe storms were observed maturing east of a dryline. Additional
development/intensification into the evening appears likely owing to
extreme buoyancy (5000 J/kg of MLCAPE) aided by an abnormally strong
EML and mid to upper 70s F dewpoints. 60 kt of effective shear
observed from area VADs will continue to support a predominately
supercell mode with the primary threat of large to giant hail. While
initially weak, especially with southern extent, low-level shear
should intensify this evening as the low-level jet increases. This
may also aid in some upscale growth of ongoing storms, and some
expansion of additional storms moving south across the Red River
from OK. Should this occur, a locally greater risk for damaging
winds may develop, especially across the northeastern portions of
WW309 toward the DFW metroplex later this evening.

...Lyons.. 06/15/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_ETZjWuSVs920E7nS5kXgkXmjkHszBAAlvgbyaMu_hKZYN8811iTXrMHYnrpSYnENhWMYccq6=
esuHhNf5huDjwMcQE4$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON   30719813 30539865 30619905 30989932 32149960 33339937
            33489875 33579788 33569723 33519675 33439653 33299621
            33059600 32649600 32459610 31609651 30909746 30719813=20


=3D =3D =3D
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