Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1082 To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu Jun 15 2023 21:53:17 ACUS11 KWNS 152153 SWOMCD SPC MCD 152152=20 OKZ000-TXZ000-152315- Mesoscale Discussion 1082 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0452 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023 Areas affected...Portions of the eastern OK/TX Panhandles into western/southern OK and western north TX Concerning...Tornado Watch 307... Valid 152152Z - 152315Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 307 continues. SUMMARY...Very large hail, severe/damaging winds, and tornadoes will remain a threat with multiple supercells. DISCUSSION...A pair of supercells that developed over southwestern OK have matured as they approach Lawton OK. Very large hail up to 2.75" has been reported with one of these cells, and the threat for giant hail (3-4+ inches) will continue with any supercell given the very favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment. Both of these cells have recently exhibited rightward deviant motion, and are ingesting sufficient low-level helicity to support updraft rotation. Indeed, the leading cell has shown signs of intense low-level rotation in the past 15-20 minutes, and a tornado may occur. Destructive RFD winds may occur as well. Additional intense supercells will likely develop rapidly in the next couple of hours across the eastern TX Panhandle into western north TX along/east of a surface dryline. Very large hail, severe/damaging winds, and tornadoes will be possible as these supercells strengthen into western OK and western north TX. A more favored location for tornadoes may exist across west-central into southwestern OK along/near the intersection of the dryline and what appears to be an outflow/instability gradient laid out from the leading pair of supercells. Low-level winds are backed to more easterly across this area, which should locally enhance effective SRH and tornado potential with any sustained supercell. Finally, severe/damaging wind potential will likely increase across the far eastern OK Panhandle into northwestern OK over the next couple of hours. Convection in southwestern KS has grown upscale into an MCS with multiple measured severe wind gusts up to 56 kt. Very large hail and tornadoes will also remain a concern with any embedded supercells, particularly with southward extent where convection may remain semi-discrete. ...Gleason.. 06/15/2023 ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4wg0xH0tSChScQLflndQn-AkzKz3hmb-b72pWoKwWMIYX_QhvB2kNgxwDkE9VyQQ36DjlOGxB= rBtCBRUAdg5tdsFq6o$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA... LAT...LON 36709939 35399842 34419735 33959720 34029769 33709849 33759957 34260033 34840070 35440097 36690097 36970023 36709939=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .