Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jun 15 2023 21:12:58

AWUS01 KWNH 152112
FFGMPD
UTZ000-NVZ000-160211-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0492
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
512 PM EDT Thu Jun 15 2023

Areas affected...portions of Utah

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 152111Z - 160211Z

Summary...Vigorous convection across the discussion area could
pose a very localized flash flood risk across portions of Utah
over the next 3-6 hours.=20

Discussion...Deep convection has materialized just ahead of a
strong mid-level shortwave trough centered over northern Nevada.=20
The combination of cool (-12 to -16C) mid-level temps and surface
heating has allowed for 1000+ J/kg SBCAPE values to develop per
SPC Mesoanalyses.  Mid-level ascent was most focused along an axis
from near PUC to P38 just ahead of the wave, where deeper
convection was most focused.  Additionally, westerly flow aloft
was allowing for some convection to orient favorably for repeating
rainfall - especially in southwestern Utah.  MRMS rain rates were
estimated at 0.25-0.75 inch/hr beneath the heavier cores, which
isn't surprising given the nearly 0.8 in PW values across the
region.

The greatest concern with the ongoing scenario is that a quick
burst of rainfall (perhaps 0.5 inch in less than an hour) could
cause rapid runoff especially near locally sensitive terrain/slot
canyons.  This potential is likely to exist for a few hours as the
regime slowly evolves and continued insolation supports
surface-based instability.  Updrafts should weaken during the
early evening as low-level cooling commences, ultimately resulting
in lessening rain rates.  The flash flood risk across the region
should last through at least 01Z-02Z or so.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!9CH2bPv-Y4E11qxRVYXU4mx590wtlrsVrENY4t-O0_AWNB5ZZze7OvKKmTe4VWfSlRSG=
0wT0zjmIwSfyNL62ygyV4lU$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GJT...LKN...SLC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...CBRFC...CNRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   40311192 40151047 38931001 37491042 37051179=20
            37131506 37861554 38471482 38741393 39501289=20
            40091278=20

=3D =3D =3D
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