Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1081
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jun 15 2023 20:51:15

ACUS11 KWNS 152051
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152050=20
LAZ000-MSZ000-152215-

Mesoscale Discussion 1081
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0350 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023

Areas affected...Portions of far southern/coastal MS and
southeastern LA

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 304...

Valid 152050Z - 152215Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 304
continues.

SUMMARY...An isolated hail threat may continue in the short term.
The need for an additional watch beyond 22Z (5 PM CDT) remains
uncertain.

DISCUSSION...Convection has recently weakened across far southern MS
into southeastern LA. This may be occurring as weak large-scale
subsidence occurs behind a low-amplitude shortwave trough. The
environment remains very favorable for severe thunderstorms, with
very strong to extreme instability and strong deep-layer shear
present. If these thunderstorms can restrengthen in the next hour,
or any additional robust thunderstorms develop, they would pose a
threat for large hail. Given recent trends, it is not clear that an
additional watch will be needed beyond the scheduled expiration time
of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 304 (22Z/5 PM CDT).

...Gleason.. 06/15/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!66m5HJpHovcZ2Mqe8jEZ2zCmZfMoScgukpHbEX5m3g4a9l2BU5XKymTU3hycEM0Jzhws_HGoI=
EEIo8UEVDatTr-wQoM$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LIX...

LAT...LON   30549054 30948996 30138919 29378955 29869049 30549054=20


=3D =3D =3D
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