Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jun 15 2023 20:38:29

AWUS01 KWNH 152038
FFGMPD
OKZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-160037-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0491
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
437 PM EDT Thu Jun 15 2023

Areas affected...western Kansas, eastern Colorado

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 152037Z - 160037Z

Summary...Slow-moving, deep convection will pose a localized flash
flood risk through at least 00Z or so.

Discussion...A cluster of deep convection has materialized across
southeastern Colorado and southwestern Kansas over the past hour
or so.  These storms are located just north of the belt of
stronger westerlies aloft, with close proximity to a mid-level
vort max allowing for erratic and nearly stationary storm motions
at times.  Meanwhile, the storms were located in an axis of very
strong instability (3000 J/kg MLCAPE) and strong
south-southeasterly flow allowing for local organization.  These
factors, along with gradual moistening (and 1+ inch PW values)
were allowing for efficient rainfall processes and rain rates
exceeding 1.5 inches/hr beneath several of the longer-lived cores.

Fortunately, the storms are located in an area of lack of rainfall
over the past couple weeks, with locally higher FFG as a result.=20
Not far from the more dominant cluster, lower FFGs (in the 1.5
inch/hr range) are located (especially north, northeast, and east
of ongoing storms).  The overall scenario supports at least a
localized risk of flash flood potential over the next few hours as
storms move/propagate erratically - primarily driven by local cold
pool evolution.

Over time, there is some suggesting that storms/clusters should
pickup forward speed while exhibiting modest upscale growth into
clusters and line segments.  This should lessen the flash flood
threat gradually, but may take a few hours to evolve.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!-Uy5tLllnRCEtUj9PRYQzjS-wc4-sEchfL8a1a5PKRnKpkDvzgSZxP4gNEiMlmKO6fT9=
gWZ3PNwEB8xW5gJeNtUWzf0$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AMA...BOU...DDC...GLD...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   39570206 39189984 37939896 37029962 36990161=20
            37100349 37690431 39280326=20

=3D =3D =3D
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