Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1074
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jun 15 2023 17:53:14

ACUS11 KWNS 151753
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151752=20
MSZ000-LAZ000-151915-

Mesoscale Discussion 1074
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1252 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023

Areas affected...Portions of southern MS and southeastern LA

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 304...

Valid 151752Z - 151915Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 304
continues.

SUMMARY...Large hail and damaging winds will continue to be a threat
with thunderstorms across parts of southern Mississippi and
southeastern LA. Some of the hail could be very large (2+ inches).

DISCUSSION...Primary severe threat in the short term across Severe
Thunderstorm Watch 304 will remain tied to an intense supercell
across far south-central MS. Additional robust convective
development to the south of this supercell is possible, with a few
cells recently developing along what appears to be a marine warm
front. Modest low-level warm advection with a 25-30 kt
west-southwesterly low-level jet may also be aiding this activity.
45-50 kt of deep-layer shear related to southern-stream mid-level
jet will continue to organize updrafts, with supercells likely
remaining the primary thunderstorm mode. Very strong instability,
with 3000-4000+ J/kg of MLCAPE estimated by latest mesoanalysis,
along with steep mid-level lapse rates will support a large to very
large hail threat with any supercell. Severe/damaging downdraft
winds may also occur given fairly steep low-level lapse rates across
this area. With weak large-scale ascent, overall coverage of severe
thunderstorms may remain fairly isolated this afternoon.

...Gleason.. 06/15/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_QMqTAXzrWns7CE-6jvAu5_5bdDmaeQD7iSKMuFj_iOx6tjrfPzOVmHGOUIytB9xyORt-9rEi=
95eTuHwGHdYWUneCA8$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...

LAT...LON   31409067 31368931 30808873 30208944 30489092 31409067=20


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.