Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1077
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jun 15 2023 19:09:14

ACUS11 KWNS 151909
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151908=20
FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-152015-

Mesoscale Discussion 1077
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0208 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023

Areas affected...Portions of southern AL...far southwestern GA...and
the FL Panhandle

Concerning...Tornado Watch 302...303...

Valid 151908Z - 152015Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 302, 303 continues.

SUMMARY...The main severe threats across southern Alabama and the
Florida Panhandle may be large hail and damaging winds. But, a
tornado remains possible in the short term.

DISCUSSION...A cluster of thunderstorms is ongoing across
south-central AL at 1905Z. Multiple embedded supercells are also
noted within this cluster based on recent reflectivity/velocity data
from area radars. The airmass downstream of this activity remains
moderately to strongly unstable, with MLCAPE generally ranging from
2500-3500 J/kg. Strong deep-layer shear will allow for continued
updraft organization, including supercells. Severe/damaging winds
will probably be the main severe threat with the current cluster as
it spreads southeastward into the FL Panhandle over the next hour or
two. Some large hail will also be possible with any embedded
supercell. Recent VWPs from KMOB/KEVX show low-level winds have
generally veered to southwesterly. Still, modest
veering/strengthening of the wind profile through the boundary layer
is supporting around 100-150 m2/s2 of effective SRH. Some threat for
a tornado may continue in the short term with any supercell that can
be sustained. Given that the severe threat will  continue past 20Z,
either an extension in time for Tornado Watches 302/303 or new watch
issuance will be needed.

...Gleason/Thompson.. 06/15/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_LFMs9o51xzHPl_U9p26r4SWXXCpXFhyUhZ6uyZTZWyWQpzeUtmDfp_UUE1Kcmi-XaqPfXXxG=
iAESPLSs8ZViWTPOg4$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...

LAT...LON   31478809 31568626 31018484 30608388 30378330 29858348
            30008419 29588493 29668540 30188593 30338658 30218743
            30238822 31178836 31478809=20


=3D =3D =3D
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