Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu Jun 15 2023 17:42:13 ACUS02 KWNS 151742 SWODY2 SPC AC 151740 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM ARKANSAS TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE VICINITY...ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO AND ADJACENT PARTS OF KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA...AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION... ....SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible Friday through Friday night from the central High Plains southeastward to parts of Florida and southern Georgia, and over portions of the Mid-Atlantic region. ....Synopsis... As a short-wave trough shifts east-southeastward across the central Appalachians toward the Mid-Atlantic region, some phasing will occur with a southern-stream feature moving east-southeastward out of Arkansas and into the Southeast. Farther west, a weak trough will move slowly eastward across the Intermountain Region through the period. At the surface, a cold front stretching from New England to Texas will progress steadily southeastward across the east, while drifting more slowly southward across Texas. A second/weak front is forecast to move slowly southeastward across the central Plains region through the period. ....Arkansas southeastward to southwestern Georgia and the Florida Panhandle... Several clusters/areas of convection are forecast to shift across the Lower Mississippi Valley/central Gulf Coast states/Southeast Friday, ahead of the aforementioned/southeastward-moving short-wave trough. Uncertainty exists with respect to timing/location of the individual convective clusters, but it appears that storms -- and accompanying hail/wind risk -- will be ongoing somewhere in the Arkansas to southern Mississippi corridor, which would then shift southeastward with time across the central Gulf Coastal region/northern Gulf of Mexico. CAMs differ with respect to persistence/longevity of this convection, and to what degree convective outflow is reinforced across southern portions of the SLGT risk area. The HRRR in particular -- which is much faster with this early convection -- suggests that remnants will affect Florida into the afternoon hours, where local hail/wind risk is expected. Later in the day, CAMs suggests additional convective development, across portions of the SLGT risk area, with substantial spread in terms of actual location/evolution of the new storm development. In any case, with the overall environment supportive of stronger/locally severe storms, an additional round or rounds of wind/hail exceeding severe levels will exist across the area. Some risk will likely persist through the evening, and possibly into the overnight hours. ....Southeastern Colorado into southwestern Kansas/northwestern Oklahoma... Thunderstorm development is forecast to occur by mid afternoon across the Front Range of Colorado, as daytime heating results in mixed-layer CAPE increasing to 1500 to 2000 J/kg near a weak front sagging southward across east-central and southeastern Colorado. With the most favorable CAPE/shear combination expected over southeastern portions of the state, expect initial storms to be accompanied by risk for large hail. Damaging wind gusts will also be possible locally -- particularly with any upscale growth as convection spreads eastward after dark into southwestern Kansas and the Oklahoma Panhandle vicinity. ....Mid-Atlantic region... Daytime heating/destabilization south and east of a baroclinic zone forecast to be lying across the region will allow thunderstorms to develop through midday/early afternoon. A few stronger storms are expected to evolve -- particularly ahead of a weak frontal wave progged to develop over the Maryland/northern Virginia vicinity. Marginal hail and strong wind gusts will be possible with the developing storms, with some potential for upscale growth into one or more bands of storms into the afternoon. Much of the convection will likely have moved offshore by late afternoon, with any lingering/inland storms likely to weaken below severe levels after sunset in tandem with diurnal cooling/stabilization. ...Goss.. 06/15/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .