Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1071
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jun 15 2023 16:56:43

ACUS11 KWNS 151656
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151656=20
OKZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-151900-

Mesoscale Discussion 1071
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1156 AM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023

Areas affected...Southeast CO...Extreme Northeast NM...Far Western
OK Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 151656Z - 151900Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms capable of isolated large hail and/or strong
gusts are possible this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Recent visible satellite imagery shows increasing
cumulus over the Raton Mesa vicinity as well as near the developing
lee surface low across southeast CO. The air mass will continue to
warm and destabilization, with thunderstorm development anticipated
across the lower elevations during the next hour or two. This area
is displaced north of the stronger flow aloft, suggesting a less
organized storm mode, with a trend towards more outflow dominant
cells. Even so, strong buoyancy will be in place, which could
contribute to robust updrafts capable of producing isolated hail.
Gusty outflow is also possible. The overall severe thunderstorm
coverage is expected to remain isolated, with the intensity of the
storms mitigated by limited vertical shear. As such, a watch is not
anticipated across this area.

...Mosier/Thompson.. 06/15/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_DvD5MSJ5SMKdGh_GXf5fuCrPQ0OYcTAj3OqOlRqSIFaSNLvTnlYfqQUeWfTgTFov2Hq3e65v=
OfzhmUVdWDGBaAPvdg$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

LAT...LON   36570446 37380414 38160311 38200243 37120244 36570298
            36490352 36570446=20


=3D =3D =3D
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