Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1070
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jun 15 2023 16:23:13

ACUS11 KWNS 151623
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151622=20
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-151745-

Mesoscale Discussion 1070
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1122 AM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023

Areas affected...Portions of southern AL into southwest GA and the
FL Panhandle

Concerning...Tornado Watch 302...303...

Valid 151622Z - 151745Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 302, 303 continues.

SUMMARY...The greatest severe threat in the next 1-2 hours should
extend across parts of southern Alabama into southwest Georgia and
the Florida Panhandle.

DISCUSSION...The most intense convection across Tornado Watches
302/303 should remain focused along/near a stalled boundary that
extends from central MS into west-central/southern AL and southwest
GA. Any supercells that can remain discrete will pose a threat for
large hail, as moderate to strong instability and 45-50+ kt of
deep-layer shear foster robust updrafts. There will also be some
tendency for small clusters to develop and move east-southeastward
along the front. This may already be occurring in southwestern AL.
The threat for damaging winds will be greater with any cluster that
can persist as low-level lapse rates steepen with continued daytime
heating. The tornado threat remains less clear in the short term
(next 1-2 hours). Latest mesoanalysis and KMOB/KTLH VWPs do show
around 100-150 m2/s2 of 0-1 km SRH associated with a 25-35 kt
southwesterly low-level jet. However, deviant storm motions to the
right of the mean wind have generally not been observed this
morning. Still, any surface-based supercell along/south of the
boundary may pose a tornado threat, with somewhat better chances
focused across far southeastern AL, southwest GA, and parts of the
FL Panhandle in the near term.

...Gleason.. 06/15/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!7GSK5xifLGTzqqSsyehGjK-aGlPtBdKGucg4_-IoRz7IdOFPLSXWE6QVvBS9RblZG3UHiRsYu=
ARaDZ7K1PaFbZHsnac$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...

LAT...LON   32398771 32108672 31728585 31498466 30938333 30538338
            30118435 30538503 31138651 31918828 32398771=20


=3D =3D =3D
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