Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1069
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jun 15 2023 14:27:09

ACUS11 KWNS 151427
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151426=20
MSZ000-LAZ000-151600-

Mesoscale Discussion 1069
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0926 AM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023

Areas affected...Portions of southern/central MS and southeastern LA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 151426Z - 151600Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Increasing severe hail and damaging wind threat will
likely warrant watch issuance this morning. A tornado or two also
appears possible.

DISCUSSION...Two supercells are ongoing this morning across central
MS. The 12Z sounding from JAN shows ample MUCAPE (nearly 3000 J/kg),
with a residual cap around 700 mb. Strong flow at mid/upper levels
is still promoting 50+ kt of deep-layer shear, and supercells posing
a threat for large to very large hail (2+ inches in diameter) appear
possible given the steep mid-level lapse rates present.
Severe/damaging winds may also occur with any clusters that can form
and spread east-southeastward. The airmass downstream of this
ongoing activity is already strongly unstable, and the threat for
severe thunderstorms will likely increase this morning. Watch
issuance will be needed soon. The tornado threat is a bit more
uncertain given somewhat veered low-level flow. But, there may still
be enough low-level shear for a tornado or two.

...Gleason/Thompson.. 06/15/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!5OF1ucq06ngJhfca5OwfNTuLsvnVRi0BFU-Rzz9luJiAoCskq7gU27A2ZUBi-DtqBkiLtBvUO=
E1TXaLz6xeyLfmoUw8$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...

LAT...LON   32339129 32198892 31528855 30538855 30218967 30269143
            31109162 31789184 32339129=20


=3D =3D =3D
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