Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu Jun 15 2023 12:59:40 ACUS01 KWNS 151259 SWODY1 SPC AC 151258 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0758 AM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023 Valid 151300Z - 161200Z ....THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ....SUMMARY... Widespread severe storms associated with damaging wind gusts, large hail and a few tornadoes are expected this afternoon into tonight across parts of the southern and central Plains. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter and wind gusts above 80 mph will be possible along the more intense parts of a fast-moving line of storms. A severe threat will also exist today across parts of the Southeast, and in parts of the Midwest. ....Southern and Central Plains... Severe thunderstorm potential is expected to steadily increase by mid-afternoon, initially across the south-central High Plains, as a lead shortwave trough moves into the region and interacts with a moist and strongly unstable boundary layer. This moist axis and corridor of greater destabilization will extend from the Colorado/Kansas border vicinity southeastward into the eastern Texas Panhandle/western Oklahoma and western North Texas by peak heating. Storms will likely increase initially by mid-afternoon near/north of the surface triple point across the south-central High Plains, with storms then rapidly increasing in coverage from southwest Kansas south-southeastward near the dryline across the far eastern Texas Panhandle and Texas Low Rolling Plains. Steep lapse rates and strong buoyancy in the presence of 50+ kt effective shear will support intense supercells capable of very large hailstones, along with a tornado threat with the more intense supercells. Subsequent upscale growth is expected, potentially culminating this evening as an intense forward-propagating MCS/derecho as storms move southeastward into/across Oklahoma. Given the atmospheric ingredients, it seems viable that wind gusts with the more intense parts of the line will likely be greater than 70 kt as the complex accelerates southeastward. Aside from the potential for significant/widespread wind damage, a few tornadoes will be possible, along with a continued threat for episodic large hail into the evening. The complex of storms could reach parts of North Texas and Arklatex by late evening/early in the overnight, and perhaps even the ArkLaMiss vicinity. ....Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast States... After a very active Wednesday across the region, strong/severe thunderstorms have been semi-persistent but on a more isolated basis through the overnight along/north of outflow-reinforced effective boundaries. Owing to a seasonally strong southern-stream belt of westerlies, wind profiles will remain highly supportive of well-organized/sustained storms including supercells as well as linear/bowing clusters. This will particularly be the case as the boundary layer warms/destabilizes into late morning and afternoon along/south of the primary baroclinic zone. The greatest storm coverage could occur from southern Mississippi into southern Alabama and north Florida/far southern Georgia. Damaging winds and isolated large hail will be relatively common with the strongest storms, with some potential for tornadoes, especially where low-level shear is strongest in vicinity of the boundary across far southern Alabama/northern Florida and far southern Georgia. ....Ohio/Southeast Lower Michigan/Northern Indiana... A shortwave trough will develop southeastward today over the Great Lakes vicinity, with an associated cooling of mid-level temperatures and strengthening mid-level westerlies across Indiana/Ohio/Pennsylvania. Modest moistening will occur as the boundary layer warms ahead of a southeastward-moving cold front. Thunderstorms are most likely to develop and intensify this afternoon near this front across far southeast Lower Michigan/northern Indiana into northwest Ohio, and subsequently spread southeastward this afternoon. The strengthening winds aloft will support some semi-organized/sustained severe storms capable of hail and wind this afternoon through early evening. ...Guyer/Dean.. 06/15/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .