Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jun 15 2023 12:54:52

AWUS01 KWNH 151254
FFGMPD
FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-151800-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0488
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
854 AM EDT Thu Jun 15 2023

Areas affected...Lower MS Valley...Deep South

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 151244Z - 151800Z

Summary...Training thunderstorms with rainfall rates up to 2"/hr
will maintain a threat for some flash flooding across portions of
the Lower MS Valley and Deep South this morning given previous
heavy rainfall across the region.

Discussion...Radar imagery this morning shows an uptick in
thunderstorm coverage along an east-west axis gradually marching
southeast across the Lower MS Valley and Deep South. This activity
remains rooted atop an elongated outflow boundary draped across
the region, working in tandem with a shortwave centered over AR
and strong right entrance forcing from a Mid-Atlantic jet streak.

20-25 kts of southwesterly 925-850 mb inflow is noted across the
region from recent VWPs, which continues to support plentiful
moisture and instability transport atop the outflow boundary. Per
recent blended TPW output, some anomalous upstream moisture
remains across central AL into LA (1.65"-1.93"), with deep warm
cloud layers upwards of 4000-4500 meters noted across the region.
Meanwhile, unseasonably strong bulk shear profiles of 40-50 kts
will continue to favor well organized convection (including some
supercells).

In spite of very fast individual easterly storm motions over 30-40
kts, Corfidi vectors acutely oriented toward the 850-300 mb mean
flow support a continued training threat through this morning. CAM
guidance continues to struggle with the placement, coverage, and
evolution of the convection. However, the overnight HREF suggests
an additional 1-3" of rainfall (possibly locally higher) remains
possible through 18z, which will maintain a threat of flash
flooding given previous heavy rainfall over the last 24 hours.

Asherman

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!7DbJhknaVxOHh5iAYbfIinxfZxtPoQePjMz2L3Dcv2O41HgoKy-DXuk2OtkcmNaVNRab=
FpAYX9jKIHm8WuFR4a5qnUU$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...JAN...MOB...SHV...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   33529116 32958593 32088418 30908429 30748545=20
            30968691 31248811 31869005 32729252=20

=3D =3D =3D
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