Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1066
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jun 15 2023 11:47:09

ACUS11 KWNS 151147
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151146=20
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-151345-

Mesoscale Discussion 1066
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0646 AM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023

Areas affected...ArkLaMiss region eastward into west-central AL

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 151146Z - 151345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Some uptick in storm intensity is possible with time this
morning. Watch issuance is possible.

DISCUSSION...A few elevated supercells have persisted through the
night from northeast LA into central MS, to the north of an
outflow-reinforced surface boundary draped from northern LA into
southern MS. While early-day visible imagery shows both low
cloudiness and anvil cirrus across parts of the region, at least
modest diurnal heating will be possible south of the ongoing
convection, and temperatures have already risen into the mid/upper
70s F across parts of central MS. Decreasing MLCINH may allow for
ongoing storms to become rooted closer to the surface as they move
east-southeastward, with MLCAPE of greater than 2000 J/kg and strong
deep-layer shear continuing to support both discrete and clustered
supercells.=20

Any tendency toward more surface-based storms would result in an
increasing damaging-wind threat, in addition to the ongoing threat
of hail (possibly approaching 2 inches in diameter). Modestly
enhanced low-level shear/SRH resulting from a moderate southwesterly
low-level jet (as noted on the KDGX VWP) could also support a
conditional threat of a tornado with any sustained surface-based
supercell later this morning. Watch issuance is possible if ongoing
storms persist and show indications of becoming surface-based with
time.

...Dean/Guyer.. 06/15/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!7ZIQycZvB-PnIx2UAYntkc8LM1D8yVNTBQSplLx2luBpI_lycF-U7L4B9RYjK-M9DMCUEITII=
va5E9RjtLz8iEOqx0I$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...JAN...

LAT...LON   33269193 33148986 32948879 32898806 32778767 32428757
            32408858 31848900 31658942 31859044 32179138 32439168
            32669180 33269193=20


=3D =3D =3D
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