Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu Jun 15 2023 09:00:07 ACUS48 KWNS 150900 SWOD48 SPC AC 150858 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023 Valid 181200Z - 231200Z ....DISCUSSION... Models indicate that the large-scale mid/upper flow over North America will undergo transition during this period, with wind fields and vertical shear generally weakening across most areas east of the Rockies during the early through middle portion of next week. Downstream of an amplifying mid/upper trough over the interior Northwest, it still appears that an increasingly prominent high will form near/north of the upper Great Lakes region. However, this regime may remain progressive, with the high shifting eastward then southeastward across Ontario and Quebec into the Northeast through Thursday, while the interior Northwest troughing (and embedded impulses) accelerates across the Canadian Prairies and northwestern Hudson Bay vicinity. In lower latitudes, the center of a prominent subtropical high is forecast to shift west/northwest of the lower Rio Grande Valley into the southwest Texas/Chihuahua vicinity, downstream of a closed low within broad, weak troughing digging across the eastern Pacific. Meanwhile, weak mid-level troughing appears likely to generally linger across the Southeast. There remains a signal that a convectively augmented mid-latitude perturbation emerging from the Great Basin may contribute to the maintenance of the Southeastern mid-level troughing. It appears that this feature, and an associated belt of seasonably strong wind fields, will dig across the Mid South on Sunday. There it may encounter a return flow of seasonably moist air, with steep lapse rates on its southwestern through southern periphery contributing to large mixed-layer CAPE. This may support renewed intensifying thunderstorm development by Sunday afternoon, if not earlier. This may include a few supercells, before convection tends to grow upscale into one or two organizing, east-southeastward propagating clusters accompanied by a risk for damaging wind gusts into Sunday night. ...Kerr.. 06/15/2023 = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .