Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1064
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jun 15 2023 06:36:09

ACUS11 KWNS 150636
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150635=20
ALZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-150830-

Mesoscale Discussion 1064
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0135 AM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023

Areas affected...Northern LA/southern AR into central MS and
west-central AL

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 301...

Valid 150635Z - 150830Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 301
continues.

SUMMARY...Some threat for large hail and locally damaging gusts will
persist overnight. A local extension of WW 301 may be needed, while
watch issuance into Alabama is being considered.

DISCUSSION...Scattered elevated supercells are ongoing at 0630 UTC
across parts of central MS, while a somewhat larger supercell
cluster has evolved over west-central AL. In general, the
environment remains favorable for organized elevated storms, with
MUCAPE of greater than 2000 J/kg and strong deep-layer shear (with
effective shear of 60-70 kt). The cluster in AL appears to be
propagating along the instability gradient, and its longevity is
somewhat uncertain. However, with a moderate southwesterly low-level
jet in place, this cluster may continue into parts of south AL, and
this area is being monitored for the potential of watch issuance.=20

Farther west, elevated supercells may persist across parts of MS,
with some redevelopment possible across northern LA. With some large
hail threat likely to persist for a few more hours, local watch
extension of WW 301 may be needed prior to the 07Z expiration time.

...Dean/Guyer.. 06/15/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!5lkozs_JX00r1QevXWe5tjNoskyQFk8H3gX_QxwmWgtfzX4qZJbpwc605OVN0V36fPvA5yi7Y=
vt5k_96_b_AQpc2-yE$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON   31849037 32669212 33089291 33259317 33499309 33559141
            33739033 33158851 32688764 32468721 31968613 31448574
            31298622 31598775 31658837 31849037=20


=3D =3D =3D
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