Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu Jun 15 2023 06:32:17 AWUS01 KWNH 150632 FFGMPD GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-151230- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0487 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 231 AM EDT Thu Jun 15 2023 Areas affected...Central and Eastern MS through West-Central to South-Central AL Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 150630Z - 151230Z SUMMARY...Additional rounds of locally training showers and thunderstorms will maintain a threat for some flash flooding early this morning. DISCUSSION...The latest radar and satellite imagery shows an axis of heavy showers and thunderstorms advancing generally east-southeast across portions of central and eastern MS and into west-central to south-central AL. The activity is rooted along the north side of a well-defined instability gradient and nearby outflow boundary that was produced from convection earlier last evening. There is the presence of a west-southwest low-level jet of about 30 kts that is favoring the sustainability of this convection given the persistence of moisture and instability transport up across the central Gulf Coast region and over the top of the aforementioned outflow boundary. Very strong shear profiles remain in place as well, and this is maintaining some well-organized convective cores including a few supercell structures within the larger scale convective mass. The PW environment is seasonably moist with values locally over 1.75 inches, but the strong shear/forcing in the low to mid-level part of the vertical column coupled with the available instability will continue to favor enhanced rainfall rates that may locally exceed 1.5 to 2 inches/hour with the stronger convective cells. This current axis of showers and thunderstorms will likely have some longevity to it going through the early morning hours as it advances downstream across areas of west-central to south-central AL, and new development will be possible upstream back across areas of central and eastern MS that will then track over areas that have already seen heavy rainfall overnight. Expect locally an additional 3 to 4 inches of rain going through the early morning hours and especially with the convection well aligned with the deeper layer mean flow that will encourage additional cell-training. Some instances of flash flooding will be possible and especially for areas that have already seen heavy rainfall over the last 6 to 12 hours. Orrison ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9bIBb1p9SOT_yJ6vbTiI_RuBjUdtQIB6PcYtuj8J1tl-xcVgI3lIzTfBMFJtt0WPLRcq= 5gMgZa_g1iQYifUKJTOTf98$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...JAN...MEG...MOB...TAE... ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...SERFC...NWC... LAT...LON 33778923 33508729 32988578 32218489 31458495=20 31258620 31418731 31788848 32408996 33069054=20 33639031=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .