Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jun 15 2023 02:32:15

AWUS01 KWNH 150232
FFGMPD
AZZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-150700-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0486
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1031 PM EDT Wed Jun 14 2023

Areas affected...Portions of the Great Basin

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 150230Z - 150700Z

SUMMARY...Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue
through the evening hours across portions of the Great Basin.
Sufficiently high enough rainfall rates may occur to maintain a
threat for isolated instances of flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a cold front
gradually advancing east-southeast across the Great Basin as a
shortwave trough crosses the region. This front over the next few
hours will be encountering a moderate to strongly buoyant
pre-frontal airmass over areas of eastern NV and western UT. In
fact, the latest RAP analysis shows SBCAPE values of as much as
1500 to 2500 J/kg. This coupled with modest effective bulk shear
of about 20 kts and increasing large scale ascent associated with
the shortwave should help to actually favor some uptick in the
coverage of showers and thunderstorms over the next few hours.

Overall, the activity should tend to be scattered in nature, but
the cells will tend to be rather slow-moving and this will allow
for some locally heavy hourly rainfall totals. This will be
favored in part also by the proximity of rather anomalous moisture
ahead of the front, with PWs running a solid 2 to 3 standard
deviations above normal. The 18Z HREF suite of guidance does
support low-end probabilities of seeing 1 to 1.5 inch hourly
totals with the stronger cells, with some spotty storm totals
going through 06Z that may reach 2 to 3 inches.

Some of these storms may locally impact a couple of burn scars,
and there may be some dry wash and slot-canyon concerns as these
storms develop and persist over the next few hours. Given the
heavy hourly and even sub-hourly rainfall rates, some isolated
instances of flash flooding will continue to be possible.

Orrison

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!6okd7cBTsSuv8KbJGqUGu4pUaYiwaUBoM7AlqleP3BrdbSO-Uelerf-zGiSENmf1jDhl=
0jL7eO_XVWhpO_xO5DkvsOE$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...LKN...SLC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...CBRFC...CNRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   41251235 41111152 40711102 40101089 39511099=20
            38631112 38011101 37411102 36971133 36961221=20
            37771282 38151373 38191506 38331599 38941625=20
            39661549 40291452 40841368=20

=3D =3D =3D
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