Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1061
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jun 15 2023 01:50:36

ACUS11 KWNS 150150
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150150=20
LAZ000-TXZ000-150245-

Mesoscale Discussion 1061
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0850 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023

Areas affected...Eastern Texas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 295...299...

Valid 150150Z - 150245Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 295, 299
continues.

SUMMARY...An isolated severe weather threat may continue into late
evening across eastern Texas.

DISCUSSION...Earlier supercells which prompted watch 299 dissipated
as MLCIN started to increase at the surface. Additional storms,
likely rooted above the surface, have started to develop in their
wake. The environment remains favorable with MUCAPE of 5000+ J/kg
and effective shear of 50 to 70 knots. However, low-level flow
remains very weak which will be a limiting factor to more than an
isolated threat. Therefore, an isolated severe weather threat
remains, primarily if stronger cores can evolve from the current
cells in Hunt, Navarro, and Ellis counties. If these storms
dissipate, the threat has likely ended, suggesting watch 295 and the
Texas portion of watch 299 could be cancelled early.

...Bentley/Grams.. 06/15/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!93oNJWBiENX3I6qbn3EmQUIhl2DFVYRZkwWGOoOOZeipeC3ixDzNxUCsCB07LtvVHxwhGlwGG=
Z6iTNBIt99qZNqGeyI$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...

LAT...LON   32269701 32979626 33059428 32369391 31739401 31359456
            31349600 31429646 31509662 32269701=20


=3D =3D =3D
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