Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1058
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jun 15 2023 01:20:05

ACUS11 KWNS 150120
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150119=20
MSZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-150245-

Mesoscale Discussion 1058
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0819 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023

Areas affected...Southern and central Arkansas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 297...

Valid 150119Z - 150245Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 297
continues.

SUMMARY...A large to very large hail threat continues across
Arkansas this evening.

DISCUSSION...Supercells continue to develop across Arkansas this
evening on the eastern edge of a steeper mid-level lapse rate plume.
The environment remains very favorable with 3000+ J/kg MUCAPE and
effective shear of 60 to 70 knots. Expect continued development well
into the overnight period as the reservoir of buoyancy continues to
be replenished from the west and as a shortwave across northeast
Oklahoma (associated with showers east of Tulsa) approaches the
area. This is supported by the 00Z HRRR which shows continued
supercell development across Arkansas through 05-06Z.

...Bentley.. 06/15/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!9PzMHDuRvZqC2Hr4Mqm87DvFTB3uqR5TGkExpf3kVMUE9MM7UKU1u94k-TONqvoq93SlbtnvJ=
oMr8ziN3EOpx437vBg$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...

LAT...LON   33169369 33849418 34979483 35539465 35679410 35619327
            35629199 35319138 34909114 34039084 33299107 33019126
            33169369=20


=3D =3D =3D
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