Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu Jun 15 2023 01:04:38 ACUS01 KWNS 150104 SWODY1 SPC AC 150103 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0803 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023 Valid 150100Z - 151200Z ....THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE LOWER TO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEAST... ....SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms will continue across parts of the Southeast this evening. All severe weather hazards will be possible including damaging wind gusts, isolated large hail and possibly a few tornadoes. ....Central and Eastern Gulf Coast... Latest mosaic radar imagery from the central Gulf Coast eastward into southern Georgia shows a east-to-west train of strong to severe storms. These line segments are ongoing along a gradient of moderate to strong instability. The RAP is analyzing MLCAPE in the 2500 to 3500 J/kg range along this corridor with surface dewpoints generally in the mid to upper 70s F. In addition, a 60 to 80 knot mid-level jet is currently analyzed across the Southeast, with the severe storms located along the southern edge of the mid-level jet. The jet streak is creating strong deep-layer shear and is enhancing large-scale ascent, which will continue to be favorable for supercells and severe line segments this evening. The latest WSR-88D VWP at Tallahassee, Florida has 0-6 km shear in the 50 to 55 knot range with westerly flow in the low to mid-levels, and strong speed shear with height. This will continue to support a severe threat, especially with the line segment from southwest Georgia extending southwestward into the Florida Panhandle. Severe winds will be likely along the leading edge of this line segment, and a few gusts above 70 knots will be possible. The line segment will continue to move eastward across southern Georgia this evening. Isolated large hail and a QLCS tornado threat will exist with rotating cells embedded in this line. ....Lower to Mid Mississippi Valley... The latest radar imagery out of Little Rock, Arkansas this evening shows a cluster of severe storms in southeast Arkansas, including at least one intense supercell. These storms are located within a pocket of moderate to strong instability, where the RAP is analyzing MLCAPE in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. These cluster is located in the vicinity of a maximum in the 500 mb flow, where RAP analysis has 500 mb winds estimated near 75 knots. This combined with some directional shear in the low-levels will likely continue to support supercell development this evening. This activity is forecast to grow upscale and appears likely to become an MCS, moving east-southeastward into the central Gulf Coast region later this evening and into tonight. Large hail, along with hailstones of greater than 2 inches will be possible. An isolated tornado threat will also exist, along with a potential for wind damage. As the storms expand in coverage, the wind-damage threat could increase, mainly from western Mississippi southeastward into southwestern Alabama during the late evening and early overnight period. ...Broyles.. 06/15/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .