Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1051
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Jun 14 2023 22:38:04

ACUS11 KWNS 142237
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142237=20
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-150000-

Mesoscale Discussion 1051
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0537 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023

Areas affected...North central and Northeast Texas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 295...

Valid 142237Z - 150000Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 295
continues.

SUMMARY...Developing supercells will have an initial threat of giant
hail before the severe wind threat increases later this evening as
storms congeal.

DISCUSSION...Two supercells have developed across north-central
Texas along an outflow boundary/composite warm front. The 18Z FWD
VWP shows an extremely favorable thermodynamic and kinematic
environment with 5000 J/kg MLCAPE and 70 knots of effective shear.
This will support very strong supercells with gigantic hail (4+
inch). A relatively straight hodograph will support splitting storms
with ample instability north of the boundary to support strong
updrafts from both left and right movers.=20

Eventually, expect sufficient storm mergers/upscale growth for an
increasing wind threat across east/northeast Texas. This is
supported by the WoFS which has had a wind signal across eastern
Texas after 00Z on the last several runs.

...Bentley.. 06/14/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!49SwP__kdoCprfV3wq0wFV3U6gnc-RvPXVLE9Thbfvgfm62Sjf7Ts80sMPhcBZ06b2m2BK8af=
vJO2uYJT-BfWFH1HoE$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...

LAT...LON   32229797 32779729 33089680 33479539 33179393 32579384
            32219407 31959623 31739776 32229797=20


=3D =3D =3D
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