Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1048
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Jun 14 2023 20:54:01

ACUS11 KWNS 142053
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142053=20
ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-142200-

Mesoscale Discussion 1048
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0353 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023

Areas affected...portions of southeast Mississippi into southwestern
Alabama and the far western Florida Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 142053Z - 142200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...The severe threat is increasing across southeast MS into
southwestern AL. A mix of supercells and bowing segments will
promote a severe wind/hail threat and a tornado cannot be ruled out.
A WW issuance will be needed soon to address the increasing threat.

DISCUSSION...Much of southeastern MS into southwestern AL resides to
the south of a baroclinic zone. Here, surface temperatures/dewpoints
are in the lower 90s/70s F, overspread by 7.5-8 C/km lapse rates,
contributing to 5500 J/kg SBCAPE (per 20Z mesoanalysis and also
inferred by 18Z special soundings). Across this warm sector,
unseasonably strong 700-300 mb flow is contributing to 60+ kts of
effective bulk shear. Regional VADs and mesoanalysis shows
hodographs with minimal low-level curvature and upper-level
elongation, which will support HP supercells and short bowing
segments (where cold pools dominate). 2+ inch hail and
hurricane-force gusts are likely with the strongest storms and a
tornado cannot be ruled out. Additionally, if convection in LA can
grow upscale into a larger MCS across central MS, than southeast MS
into southwest AL could experience the later stages of a derecho
wind event. A WW issuance will be needed soon.

...Squitieri/Thompson.. 06/14/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!6qchams5ciFBm_CBe10rNXn0ZGGcSa5MOvZirU1JMYHE5vr4nZczRR8J90jWIAOW-gPlD9M5g=
dKZKKdFG4_IU6A_kRk$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...

LAT...LON   32458845 31928678 31408614 30958621 30778752 30858872
            31068947 31258958 31368917 31508893 32458845=20


=3D =3D =3D
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