Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1046
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Jun 14 2023 20:30:03

ACUS11 KWNS 142029
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142029=20
TXZ000-OKZ000-142200-

Mesoscale Discussion 1046
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0329 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023

Areas affected...portions of north-central and northeast Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 142029Z - 142200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Recovering air mass near and along an outflow boundary may
serve a focus for storm development late this afternoon. Extreme
buoyancy and strong vertical shear will likely support splitting
supercells with a risk for large to giant hail and damaging winds.

DISCUSSION...Across portions of north-central and northeastern TX,
afternoon visible imagery showed deepening cumulus towers along a
remnant outflow boundary from previous convection. As the boundary
has modified through the afternoon, extreme instability has
developed (5000 J/kg of MLCAPE) owing to unusually steep mid-level
lapse rates and mid 70s F surface dewpoints. The strong buoyancy
colocated with 60-70 kt of effective shear observed from the 18z FTW
sounding is supportive of potentially intense splitting supercells.
Given the favorable storm mode and extreme cape/shear space, giant
hail (3+ in) hail will be possible with the most intense storms
across north-central and northeast TX. Depending on storm coverage,
some upscale growth later this evening into one or more organized
bowing clusters may also favor a risk for damaging wind gusts. A new
Severe Thunderstorm watch will likely be needed this afternoon.

...Lyons/Thompson.. 06/14/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!7NYVAf00YPkOgf2L93-oaMiPoTxd825_w_DTEBW49ZN2Sm0Upn6a0mT5srzaQJaRdkxw5OPvq=
J0mzw4kpxXZM57uTpc$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...

LAT...LON   32289796 32759768 33239737 33649648 33759586 33819527
            33739475 33469434 33269419 32669410 32159413 32029426
            31869462 31579535 31449603 31499666 31549710 31709757
            31909782 32289796=20


=3D =3D =3D
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