Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1045
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Jun 14 2023 20:26:01

ACUS11 KWNS 142025
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142025=20
ALZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-142200-

Mesoscale Discussion 1045
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0325 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023

Areas affected...portions of eastern Louisiana into central
Mississippi

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 293...

Valid 142025Z - 142200Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 293
continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Particularly Dangerous
Situation Severe Thunderstorm Watch. Severe winds (with potential
hurricane-force gusts) remain the primary threat, though large hail
and a tornado remain possible through the remainder of the
afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Robust convection is underway across the Lower MS
Valley, with a small but compact bow echo noted in central MS, and
convection in northern LA that is attempting to grow upscale into an
MCS. Though perpendicular to the KDGX radar beam, strong in-bound
velocities are present with the central MS bow-echo, indicative of
severe wind potential. The storms in Louisiana have a history of
producing severe hail and occasional wind damage. So far, these
storms have attempted to grow upscale into a larger MCS multiple
times. However, at least transient supercellular structures have
been the general storm mode with the LA storms, possibly because
vertical shear is too strong to allow for a dominant cold pool and
subsequent bow-echo MCS development. Should upscale growth occur,
severe winds with hurricane force gusts would be likely, along with
a leading-line-embedded tornadoes. Otherwise, if supercell
structures persist, then a mix of severe winds and hail will be
likely, with 2+ inch diameter stones possible.

...Squitieri.. 06/14/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-aMeMPdDko667XcfUqtMhERVvszWeiz2V74etEmqqQCrHkBeVNeUe67NHT6VzaL3O74KqoFmW=
_UGr9rqqmgBQXFPY74$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON   31959179 32479201 33029208 33519168 33779111 33879025
            33798931 33448845 32798824 32188831 31698859 31428919
            31369015 31419088 31559168 31959179=20


=3D =3D =3D
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