Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed Jun 14 2023 19:17:08 AWUS01 KWNH 141917 FFGMPD GAZ000-ALZ000-150105- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0481 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 316 PM EDT Wed Jun 14 2023 Areas affected...South Central AL...Southwest GA Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 141905Z - 150105Z Summary...After the initial round of activity this morning, widespread multi-cell and supercell thunderstorms have erupted across portions of south-central AL and southwest Georgia. Additional rainfall totals of 3-5" through this evening will continue a flash flood threat through this evening, some of which may be siginificant. Discussion...Regional radar imagery depicts widespread multi-cell and supercell thunderstorms this afternoon across portions of south-central AL and southwest GA in the vicinity of a convectively augmented front and NE-SW oriented 925 mb confluence axis. Recent multi-sensor and single source hourly rainfall estimates denote 1.8-2"/hour rates within the most intense activity along the AL-GA border, which propagating due east along 30 kt Corfidi vectors.=20 As discussed in MPD 480, the mesoscale environment remains highly conducive for repeat rounds of efficient, organized convection.=20 30-40 kts of SSW'ly 850 mb inflow was noted across the area by VAD wind profiles as a powerful 100 kt subtropical jet approaches the MS Valley. Accordingly, 65-70 kts of effective bulk shear were characterized by elongated and cyclonically curved hodographs across the Southeast. The strong moisture advection regime and insolation also supported 3-4000 J/kg of MUCAPE (3500-5500 J/kg SBCAPE), 1.7-1.9" PWATS, and warm cloud layers around 4000 meters in the vicinity of the front. Going forward, the expectation is for convergence along the front to work in tandem with the 925 mb confluence axis to yield repeat rounds of multi-cell and supercell storms through the afternoon with rainfall rates upwards of 2-2.5"/hr. The 12Z HREF corroborates this idea and suggests this activity will focus along an east west-axis across south-central AL into southwest GA. Although the eastern extent of the heavy rainfall may be modulated by a surging outflow boundary along the GA/FL border, additional rainfall totals of 3-5" through this evening look likely where the most favorable training sets up. This is expected to lead to likely flash flooding through the afternoon, some of which could be locally significant atop urban areas and where 2-5" of rainfall fell earlier today. Asherman ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7r2rhybu5I5jm4pwDu7AaO7Ju7eEKoj_K1W2NamBg5KtVZ-dhfn_OH3q-8tejIpWS41s= aWawAD5x-HgZ5o0YGGW-QMQ$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...JAX...MOB...TAE... ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC... LAT...LON 33358632 32808343 31928316 31168283 30828322=20 30898433 31758669 32938730=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .