Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1039
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Jun 14 2023 17:13:30

ACUS11 KWNS 141713
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141712=20
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-141845-

Mesoscale Discussion 1039
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1212 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023

Areas affected...portions of far northeast Texas into southwestern
Arkansas and northern Louisiana

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 290...

Valid 141712Z - 141845Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 290
continues.

SUMMARY...Upscale growth of ongoing storms into an intense bow echo
is possible over the next few hours. Large hail and severe gusts are
the main concern. A few 65+ kt gusts are possible and trends are
being monitored for the development of a derecho-producing MCS.

DISCUSSION...Supercells that have been traversing the Red River have
shown signs of some upscale growth into a possible MCS. These storms
show 60 kft tops, with a wide area of 50 dBZ echoes exceeding 40 kft
per latest MRMS mosaic radar data. Latest satellite data also show a
broadening area of rapidly cooling cloud tops. The ongoing storms
are progressing east-southeastward along/just north of a diffuse
baroclinic zone, with low/upper 80s F temperatures on the cool/warm
side of the boundary. Along both sides, dewpoints are exceeding 75
F. Mid-level lapse rates of 7.5+ C/km are overspreading this very
moist low-level airmass over a long west-to-east corridor,
supporting extreme instability (4500+ J/kg SBCAPE) far downstream of
the upscale-growing convection. Coinciding this corridor of extreme
buoyancy is very strong (65+ kts) effective bulk shear, with
regional VADs and 16Z mesoanalysis showing hodographs that are
modestly curved at the low levels and elongated above 3 km AGL.=20=20

Potential exists for large hail (some 2+ inches in diameter) if the
ongoing convection remains more cellular. If further upscale growth
occurs, an intense bow echo, capable of widespread severe winds and
some hurricane-force gusts, may develop and may set the stage for
initiating a derecho-type event. However, the occurrence of a
derecho is highly conditional on further upscale growth.

...Squitieri.. 06/14/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!9wgkCy_DnkE6ruMLo_qkjvXDNbXgpsW2VgGRdhmCkwSFiIVRVJHGIUvl9qtaA3Qklf8s0T2pV=
G279X-XP_S9c2pMMeQ$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON   33669459 33579316 33139210 32639184 32319209 32199268
            32299353 32479423 32709466 33059496 33669459=20


=3D =3D =3D
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