Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1032
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Jun 14 2023 12:23:28

ACUS11 KWNS 141223
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141222=20
MSZ000-ARZ000-141345-

Mesoscale Discussion 1032
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0722 AM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023

Areas affected...Central/eastern AR into northern MS

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 141222Z - 141345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...A severe hail/wind threat will spread southeastward this
morning. Downstream watch issuance is possible.

DISCUSSION...At 1215 UTC, a supercell cluster is moving
southeastward across central AR, with some tendency for forward
propagation noted over the last hour. This cluster is coincident
with a convectively enhanced midlevel vorticity maximum across
northern AR, and immediately downstream of another storm cluster and
vorticity maximum across northeast OK. A southwesterly low-level jet
should help to sustain this cluster into mid morning, with strong
deep-layer shear (as noted on the KLZK VWP) continuing to support
organized storm structures. Embedded supercells will remain capable
of large hail and localized damaging gusts.=20

While the cluster is currently somewhat elevated, relatively limited
downstream cloudiness should allow for some diurnal heating, which
could result in increasing damaging wind potential if further
upscale growth occurs. This cluster will eventually move out of WW
287 into parts of northern MS, where downstream watch issuance is
possible.

...Dean/Guyer.. 06/14/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-kp7ZrpQwvF9phDQmNDMw_5zdS4x8JmN4wSSmRN6T9oZJykcl95V4iUkendsTBgW19OrT1pqE=
IzpYOTo2VQ-de1OnCE$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...

LAT...LON   35019297 35429153 34919033 34538891 34178831 33708829
            33398870 33388948 33469020 33709159 34189274 34649308
            35019297=20


=3D =3D =3D
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