Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1031 To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed Jun 14 2023 10:20:57 ACUS11 KWNS 141020 SWOMCD SPC MCD 141020=20 ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-141145- Mesoscale Discussion 1031 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0520 AM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023 Areas affected...Southern MS into adjacent parts of eastern LA and south AL Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20 Valid 141020Z - 141145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...The severe threat may increase later this morning, with a threat of hail, damaging gusts, and possibly a couple of tornadoes. Watch issuance is possible. DISCUSSION...At 1015 UTC, an elevated thunderstorm cluster is moving east-southeastward across northern LA. Severe Thunderstorm Watch 288 was recently issued in order to address the short-term severe hail/wind threat associated with this cluster into parts of south-central MS. Meanwhile, weak shower development has recently been noted from eastern LA into far southern MS/AL, within a richly moist environment characterized by dewpoints in the upper 70s F. Short-term guidance continues to suggest the potential for deep convection to erupt in this region near or after sunrise, within a warm-advection regime attendant to a moderate southwesterly low-level jet.=20 If deep convection can be sustained within this regime, MLCAPE of greater than 2500 J/kg and effective shear of 50-60 kt will be quite favorable for supercell development, with an attendant threat of hail (possibly very large) and localized severe gusts. Initial development could be slightly elevated, but decreasing MLCINH would support surface-based supercells with time, with low-level shear/SRH sufficient for a tornado threat as well. There is also some potential for the ongoing cluster to propagate southeastward and become rooted closer to the surface later this morning.=20 While uncertainty remains regarding the coverage of the severe threat with southward extent this morning, Tornado Watch issuance is possible if surface-based supercell development appears imminent. Such a watch would potentially include southern parts of WW 288. ...Dean/Guyer.. 06/14/2023 ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5LGG4zZFUM80__d8MU99nsB0t8RxxFO71sncBtBZ3crDaVt2gebbmgqAnJcUKz3_DYeRgoxfp= TDxaHjda4grnRKe6zI$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX... LAT...LON 31259127 31539110 31688981 31648900 31498798 30978780 30838776 30458829 30358968 30239104 30389127 30749131 30959131 31259127=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .