Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1029
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Jun 14 2023 08:08:24

ACUS11 KWNS 140808
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 140807=20
GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-141000-

Mesoscale Discussion 1029
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0307 AM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023

Areas affected...Parts of east-central MS...central
AL...west-central GA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 140807Z - 141000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Some hail threat may develop through the early morning.
Watch issuance is currently considered unlikely, but will be
reevaluated depending on short-term convective trends.

DISCUSSION...Elevated convection has recently developed from extreme
east-central MS into central AL, within a warm advection regime
associated with a modest southwesterly low-level jet. Rich low-level
moisture and modestly steep midlevel lapse rates are supporting
MUCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg across the region, sufficient for vigorous
updrafts. Strong mid/upper-level flow is supporting effective shear
of 40-50 kt, sufficient for organized convection, and a few cells
have exhibited marginal supercell characteristics.

Coverage of the severe threat remains uncertain early this morning,
with the potential for multiple storm mergers and a complex
convective mode, given the number of storms that have recently
developed. However, any elevated supercells that remain somewhat
discrete could pose a large hail threat through the early morning as
they move east to east-southeastward. A near-surface inversion will
tend to limit severe-wind potential, though locally damaging gusts
cannot be ruled out, especially if any organized clustering occurs
later this morning.=20

The severe threat may remain rather isolated, and watch issuance is
currently considered unlikely. However, this will be reevaluated if
short-term trends support the potential for multiple mature
supercells emerging out of the ongoing convection later this
morning.

...Dean/Guyer.. 06/14/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!9vwXW7aABGCh2evHg3AZ-v7qp4kP9ma3D6aHkkVizfeT_Y_mq-4KoDRMqZgXS6iH4sY27bsKH=
r9oPpLtAD1eQZwDF-s$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...JAN...

LAT...LON   33578844 33428721 33078564 32608435 32198422 31928519
            32088601 32458730 32758816 33198866 33578844=20


=3D =3D =3D
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