Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed Jun 14 2023 04:58:55 ACUS02 KWNS 140458 SWODY2 SPC AC 140457 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 PM CDT Tue Jun 13 2023 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND ALABAMA INTO SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI...PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND SOUTHERN KANSAS AND NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA... ....SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the eastern Gulf Coast vicinity and portions of the central Great Plains Thursday into Thursday night. Some of these may become capable of producing damaging hail and wind gusts. ....Synopsis... While a remnant mid-level low continues a slow northeastward acceleration along the northern Atlantic Seaboard into the Canadian Maritimes, models indicate that another vigorous short wave impulse will dig from the upper Great Lakes region through the lower Great Lakes/upper Ohio Valley vicinity during this period. This will maintain larger-scale mid-level troughing, generally in phase with lingering troughing in a separate branch of westerlies across the Southeast. The southern troughing may amplify some near the south Atlantic Seaboard, as upstream mid-level ridging builds across the southern Great Plains. Farther west, a significant northern branch impulse still appears likely to be in the process of migrating north-northeast of the Montana international border by early Thursday, while weaker mid-level troughing lags to the southwest, across the Great Basin into the eastern subtropical Pacific. There remain indications that a smaller-scale perturbation will emerge from this regime and progress into the central Great Plains, though it now appears a bit more probable that this feature may originate from the subtropical latitudes, before continuing around the western/northern periphery of the building southern Great Plains ridge. Higher moisture content air will remain confined to areas along and south of a remnant front and/or convective outflow across parts of the Southeast into the southern Great Plains, while warmer and more strongly capping mid-level air overspreads the Great Plains toward the lower Mississippi Valley. ....Eastern Gulf Coast vicinity... A convectively generated or reinforced surface boundary may approach Gulf coastal areas by early Thursday, before stalling/weakening. There now appears somewhat better model consensus that a zone of stronger differential surface heating may develop across southeastern Mississippi through the southern Alabama/Georgia and northern Florida vicinity by mid afternoon. A seasonably moist boundary-layer along this corridor appears likely to become supportive of large CAPE, beneath a lingering plume of steep mid-level lapse rates emanating from the southern Great Plains. Coupled with the lingering presence of seasonably strong west-northwesterly mid-level flow, the environment may become supportive of a few supercell structures and small upscale growing clusters capable of producing large, damaging hail and severe wind gusts. ....Great Plains... Within surface troughing to the lee of the southern Rockies, low-level moisture may become supportive of at least moderately large mixed-layer CAPE as far northwest as western Kansas by late Thursday afternoon, beneath steep mid-level lapse rates. With the approach of the short wave perturbation from the southern Great Basin/Southwest, it still appears that convection developing off the higher terrain near/north of the Raton Mesa vicinity will intensify while propagating into the plains by late afternoon. Deep-layer shear may be modest, with stronger westerly mid/upper flow generally forecast to overspread the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle vicinity, but a few supercell structures still appear possible before activity consolidates and grows upscale during the evening. Farther south, beneath the stronger flow across western Oklahoma into western North Texas, the environment will likely be more moist and unstable, and potentially supportive of greater severe weather hazards given sustained thunderstorm development. However, with mid-level warming tending to increase mid-level inhibition, thunderstorm initiation remains uncertain. Various model output does suggest that isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms might be able to form through early evening. If this occurs, supercells are possible. Otherwise, lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, near the leading edge of the warmer and more strongly capping elevated mixed-layer air advecting north-northeastward, may focus a consolidating convective cluster across southwestern Kansas into northern Oklahoma Thursday night. This may be accompanied by a risk for hail and strong wind gusts before weakening late. ...Kerr.. 06/14/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .