Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1027
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Jun 14 2023 03:11:21

ACUS11 KWNS 140311
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 140310=20
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-140515-

Mesoscale Discussion 1027
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1010 PM CDT Tue Jun 13 2023

Areas affected...Southeast Oklahoma...Arklatex Region

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 285...

Valid 140310Z - 140515Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 285
continues.

SUMMARY...Strong/severe convection will focus along a corridor from
southeast Oklahoma into the Arklatex region.

DISCUSSION...Low-level warm advection continues to aid convective
regeneration across the Arklatex as 1km AGL wind near 30kt is
focused into this region, per SHV VAD profile. Over the last hour or
so, numerous elevated showers have developed across southeast OK,
likely a sign of increasing warm advection immediately ahead of
approaching short-wave trough. Latest thinking is convection will
continue to develop within a strongly sheared, and steep lapse rate
environment such that some severe risk will likely continue beyond
watch expiration. 00z soundings from SHV, FWD, and OUN all exhibit
thermodynamic profiles favorable for robust updrafts capable of
generating hail.

...Darrow.. 06/14/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!8nUyXfNkaHnlKB7jWe-3QDsvwc-IHj3usTYYNtfyruN-JPxniS012XZhPD7IkYFlG28SsQ-hn=
0uv2XaHcszXNyoKmCg$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON   32099149 32909397 34169666 34979602 33229147 32099149=20


=3D =3D =3D
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