Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Jun 14 2023 01:01:20

ACUS01 KWNS 140101
SWODY1
SPC AC 140059

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0759 PM CDT Tue Jun 13 2023

Valid 140100Z - 141200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
NORTHWEST/NORTH TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND NORTHERN
LOUISIANA...

....SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to continue across parts
of the Texas Panhandle into the ArkLaTex vicinity this evening into
tonight. Additional strong storms may develop late tonight across
parts of the Tennessee Valley vicinity. Large hail and strong gusts
will be the main concern with this activity.

....01z Update...

The main changes with the 01z update is removing Slight risk (level
2 of 5) probabilities from the Southeast. The main severe risk has
shifted offshore from these areas. However, additional elevated
convection, posing mainly a hail risk, may redevelop later tonight
from eastern AR into northern MS and northern/central portions of AL
and GA.

Further west, convection is expected to continue this evening into
tonight across parts of the Texas Panhandle into southwest OK, as
well as the ArkLaTex vicinity. This activity will pose mainly a
large (AR/LA) to very large (TX Panhandle/southwest OK) hail risk.
Most forecast guidance continues to suggest a few elevated
supercells will develop late in the period (after 08z) across parts
of north Texas. The evolution of this threat remains somewhat
uncertain. The Enhanced risk (level 3 of 5) has been removed given
uncertainty both in storm coverage and location (storms may
develop/be displaced from where the Enhanced risk was previously
located). Nevertheless, if these storms materialize, they will pose
a risk for significant hail (greater than 2 inch diameter), and a 15
percent (Slight risk/Level 2 of 5) sig hail area will be maintained.

...Leitman.. 06/14/2023

$$

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