Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1026
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Jun 14 2023 00:30:50

ACUS11 KWNS 140030
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 140030=20
OKZ000-TXZ000-140200-

Mesoscale Discussion 1026
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0730 PM CDT Tue Jun 13 2023

Areas affected...Southwest Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely=20

Valid 140030Z - 140200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...A new severe thunderstorm watch will likely be needed
downstream of watch 283.

DISCUSSION...The long-lived supercell, discussed in MCD 1024 is
expected to exit watch 283 in the next 1 to 2 hours and enter
western Oklahoma. The downstream environment remains favorable with
1500 to 2000 J/kg MUCAPE and effective shear of 60 to 70 knots. The
last several runs of the HRRR have been consistent showing this
supercell persist at full intensity a few counties into Oklahoma
before weakening west of Lawton. This storm, and any development in
its immediate vicinity will likely be the only threat through the
evening and into the early overnight hours. Additional development
is possible along and north of the I-40 corridor in Oklahoma but is
expected to remain relatively weak and mostly sub-severe.

...Bentley/Grams.. 06/14/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!9hY9szTtVS_TsDLdNt2_p7K8tzu5WXAbkBQzbK5rhzvJTmZSl-rDTpuD62lN3KXRqIiwWkBYf=
UKEt8v_UhUz52E-CjY$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...AMA...

LAT...LON   34760001 35530001 35659944 35409804 34939777 34219774
            33889793 34269935 34399970 34760001=20


=3D =3D =3D
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