Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1021
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Jun 13 2023 22:12:51

ACUS11 KWNS 132212
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 132212=20
SCZ000-GAZ000-FLZ000-132345-

Mesoscale Discussion 1021
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0512 PM CDT Tue Jun 13 2023

Areas affected...southeast Georgia and northern Florida

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 284...

Valid 132212Z - 132345Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 284
continues.

SUMMARY...A damaging wind threat across southeast Georgia into
northern Florida will persist for another 1 to 2 hours.

DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms across southern Georgia has had
several reports of both measured severe wind gusts and damaging wind
gusts. The environment downstream of these storms remains very
unstable with MLCAPE around 2000 to 2500 J/kg. However, these storms
have outrun the better mid-level flow with only 20 to 25 knots of
effective shear per JAX VWP. As a result, storm organization and
hail potential remains marginal. However, the linear segment should
persist east into the greater instability with a continued threat
for damaging wind gusts to the Atlantic coast.=20

Storms developing across northern Florida have been mostly
unorganized, likely due to the aforementioned weak effective shear.
However, water loading amid PWAT values near 2 inches could support
some wet microbursts.

...Bentley.. 06/13/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!4uPEaAUgyjWr0vGGNISwmbdlH1nQEORXQKfkovmDip31aOeQ25Mgk1JeDE3QSFThyi9pwh5Ws=
bcxCN5hN8A2rUbjB6E$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...TAE...

LAT...LON   30078403 30708375 31008341 31568316 31898293 32108262
            32068081 31568096 30608104 29998135 29588320 29628394
            30018410 30078403=20


=3D =3D =3D
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