Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1018
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Jun 13 2023 19:43:19

ACUS11 KWNS 131943
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131942=20
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-132145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1018
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0242 PM CDT Tue Jun 13 2023

Areas affected...Portions of southern AL/south GA into north FL and
the FL Panhandle

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 281...

Valid 131942Z - 132145Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 281
continues.

SUMMARY...Damaging winds and large hail will continue to be a threat
with thunderstorms spreading eastward through this evening.
Downstream watch issuance into parts of southeast/coastal Georgia
and north Florida is possible.

DISCUSSION...Multiple thunderstorm clusters are ongoing across
southern AL/southwest GA and the FL Panhandle this afternoon.
Moderate to strong instability is present across these areas
along/south of a stationary front. Although mid-level winds do
weaken slightly with southward extent into north FL, area VWPs do
show gradually strengthening mid-level westerly winds to around
30-35 kt. Similar values of deep-layer shear should be enough to
continue supporting a mix of multicell clusters and perhaps
occasional marginal supercells. Both large hail and damaging winds
will continue to be a threat as this convection spreads eastward
over the next few hours. The risk for damaging winds may increase if
additional thunderstorm clustering occurs as low-level lapse rates
steepen further. Based on recent convective trends, additional watch
issuance into parts of southeast/coastal GA and north FL is
possible.

...Gleason.. 06/13/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-CoXYeTUlhwHxOrpv2NkyhC8rqo9_ifFf-eiBczXVWgYJy05kLdqCQxFfCPrlfET0K3L_WrvQ=
G5LtSNvZtW3EFeD-Bo$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...

LAT...LON   31258842 31448802 31798512 31968144 31438117 30908135
            30128142 30168306 30668572 30948803 31258842=20


=3D =3D =3D
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