Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1017
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Jun 13 2023 19:26:19

ACUS11 KWNS 131926
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131925=20
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-132130-

Mesoscale Discussion 1017
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0225 PM CDT Tue Jun 13 2023

Areas affected...Portions of northeast TX...northwestern LA...and
far southwestern AR

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 280...

Valid 131925Z - 132130Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 280
continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for mainly large hail will continue across
parts of northeast Texas and northwestern LA this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Elevated supercells which developed a couple of hours
ago across northeast TX produced multiple severe hail reports before
subsequently weakening as they moved into northwestern LA, and a
slightly less unstable airmass due to prior convection. Additional
supercells have recently developed over the Dallas/Fort Worth
Metroplex along a stalled front/convectively reinforced outflow
boundary. These supercells will also be capable of producing large
hail, as MUCAPE of 3000-4000 J/kg and 50+ kt of deep-layer shear
will easily support organized updrafts. Isolated very large hail (2+
inches in diameter) will also be possible given the very favorable
thermodynamic and kinematic environment. The potential for
surface-based thunderstorms may also slowly increase this afternoon
across northeast TX/northwestern LA, as recent visible satellite
imagery shows clearing and daytime heating gradually eroding
lingering MLCIN. Occasional severe/damaging winds may also occur as
low-level lapse rates steepen.

...Gleason.. 06/13/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!60OqdzOkpewDr6Gg3860XIHv05tCKquO90gG5D2e5D4woHICnDKaXbFint3cVeB4JOdR6Pzof=
6jHUVdToOWRpUGIAFw$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...

LAT...LON   32339531 33229520 33459450 33349388 32689321 31739307
            31909444 32339531=20


=3D =3D =3D
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