Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1016
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Jun 13 2023 18:30:49

ACUS11 KWNS 131830
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131830=20
TXZ000-132000-

Mesoscale Discussion 1016
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0130 PM CDT Tue Jun 13 2023

Areas affected...is portions of central into northern Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 131830Z - 132000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...The severe threat is increasing across central and
northern areas of TX. The stronger storms may produce large hail,
with some stones exceeding 2 inches in diameter. Trends are being
monitored for the need of a Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

DISCUSSION...Recent satellite trends depict growing CU on the cool
side of a stationary west-to-east baroclinic zone, with the latest
KFWS radar data suggesting convective initiation is underway. While
the low-level jet has been gradually weakening through the
afternoon, 18Z mesoanalysis depicts modest low-level WAA with the
approach of a low-amplitude 700 mb perturbation. Modest low-level
veering but considerable hodograph elongation is evident in forecast
soundings. As such, it is possible that supercells may develop north
of the boundary over the next few hours given 60-70 kts of effective
bulk shear. 2+ inch diameter hail may accompany the strongest
storms. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch will eventually be needed, with
the timing of storm intensification still uncertain.

...Squitieri/Thompson.. 06/13/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!7TmzcTJUzuu-DPnb_hL3hi9-ohPnl84XLPNYhqHYnGzKJ-YBZwVL2YXVrSLT22PobVuyYX3y_=
xT67eA1cZb8De2PJlI$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...

LAT...LON   32499890 32909853 33239770 33299632 33049567 32379549
            32159559 31949613 31829702 31849772 31939823 32079859
            32499890=20


=3D =3D =3D
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