Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1015
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Jun 13 2023 18:07:48

ACUS11 KWNS 131807
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131807=20
OKZ000-TXZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-131930-

Mesoscale Discussion 1015
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0107 PM CDT Tue Jun 13 2023

Areas affected...portions of far southeast Colorado into far
northeast New Mexico...extreme southwest Kansas...and western parts
of the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 131807Z - 131930Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...The severe threat is increasing for portions of the
southern High Plains. Large hail is expected to be the main threat
with the stronger storms, though a couple severe gusts and a tornado
cannot be ruled out. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch will eventually be
needed, with issuance timing the main source of uncertainty.

DISCUSSION...Cloud cover has been clearing across portions of the
southern High Plains, resulting in boundary-layer destabilization
and convective initiation over the higher terrain along the CO/NM
border. 8+ C/km surface-500 mb lapse rates atop upper 50s surface
dewpoints are contributing up to 1000 J/kg MLCAPE, with 50+ kts of
mid-level flow supporting very long, straight hodographs. As the
boundary layer continues to destabilize further this afternoon,
supercells should manifest, with large hail the main threat. Given
steep low-level lapse rates and some veering low-level flow, a
couple of severe gusts and a tornado are also possible.=20

At the moment, thicker cloud cover persists across the TX/OK
panhandles, which may take longer to destabilize. A Severe
Thunderstorm Watch will eventually be needed across portions of the
southern High Plains, though specifics regarding timing of WW
issuance remains uncertain at this time.

...Squitieri/Thompson.. 06/13/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!49WnS_20NUyWkhlomdi6e4MJ4yaqCrtIhyfu1UWj1j8Lqj65otTQvEJaTM-4n746pwZbyAfXu=
URcuvjFhIwXCiXZ1bs$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

LAT...LON   36780393 37170433 37410439 37650407 37790314 37660227
            37320134 36840091 36290092 35960151 35900230 35950282
            36110332 36780393=20


=3D =3D =3D
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