Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Tue Jun 13 2023 17:53:15 AWUS01 KWNH 131753 FFGMPD TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-132350- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0477 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 152 PM EDT Tue Jun 13 2023 Areas affected...central/southern CO Front Range into Southern High Plains Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 131750Z - 132350Z Summary...Increasing coverage of thunderstorms through the afternoon may generate localized to scattered areas of flash flooding through 00Z from the CO Front Range into the southern High Plains. Rainfall rates of 1-2 inches in 30-60 minutes will be possible, but should be fairly limited in spatial scale. Discussion...Visible satellite imagery at 1730Z showed developing cumulus with isolated thunderstorm activity over the higher terrain of the southern CO/northern NM Rockies. These storms were driven by a combination of diurnal heating under mostly clear skies and a weak mid-level shortwave trough tracking ENE from southern CO into western NM. A well defined vorticity max was located over northeastern CO in water vapor imagery, associated with fairly thick cloud cover but clear skies were noted south of I-70 with the exception of the southern CO/KS border. Another vorticity max was observed along the UT/AZ border, slowly tracking east and losing some definition/shearing. Precipitable water values have lowered compared to yesterday and are near average for early/mid-June with PWs near 0.5 inches along the I-25 corridor, increasing to 0.9 inches over the OK Panhandle. Clear skies are expected to allow continued rises in MLCAPE with RAP forecasts indicating 500 to 1000+ J/kg by 21Z. Thunderstorms are expected to move off of the higher terrain into the Front Range and intensify over the next few hours within the reservoir of building instability. Storm motions are forecast to average 10-20 kt toward the E or ESE, moving into fairly weak upslope flow to the north of a 1008 mb lee low currently analyzed near TAD. While the coverage and magnitude of higher rainfall rates are expected to be reduced compared to yesterday, short term training and cell mergers could still account for 1-2 inches of rain in 30-60 minutes in a couple of locations. Given 200 to 600+ percent of average rainfall for portions of the High Plains over the past 2 weeks, susceptibility to flash flooding is greater than average, supporting at least a localized flash flood threat through 00Z. Otto ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9RuaACEM8W5ipUBps0UvfDT5lR_M5faTGFG-nHRW6LegqdGB995lnnMEBq8Z6YdKMWtd= 8RS1WlL8oVVjmeD8KUrB68E$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...BOU...DDC...GLD...PUB... ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 39530430 39500373 38920292 38380237 37920202=20 36970161 36490165 36140227 36110328 36570442=20 37300480 38050513 38520535 39130526 39500477=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .