Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Tue Jun 13 2023 16:37:17 ACUS01 KWNS 131637 SWODY1 SPC AC 131635 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 AM CDT Tue Jun 13 2023 Valid 131630Z - 141200Z ....THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INTO NORTHEASTERN TEXAS... ....SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are still expected this afternoon into tonight from parts of the southern High Plains to the Southeast, with large hail and damaging winds possible. ....Synopsis... Scattered to widespread thunderstorms are in progress along the immediate cool side of an west-to-east oriented baroclinic zone located across portions of central TX and extending eastward across parts of central MS/AL. These storms persist within a warm-air advection regime driven by a veering and gradually weakening low-level jet overspreading the Mid South. With time, the upper ridge across the southern Plains will subside to a degree, with mid-level westerly flow increasing in magnitude. During the mid to late afternoon hours, a mid-level impulse embedded in the broader westerly flow will eject from the southern Rockies, initiating newer rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms along the southern High Plains, and across central Texas. ....Arklatex into the Southeast today into tonight... Strong to potentially severe storms are ongoing within the warm-air advection regime. Surface temperatures warming into the 80s F amid near 70 F dewpoints will contribute to 3000 J/kg of thin MLCAPE (given mediocre mid-level lapse rates). The stronger mid-level flow overspreading the region will support elongated hodographs, with multicells and short line segments the expected storm modes. Large hail will be possible with the stronger cells and a few damaging gusts may also occur with storms on the warm side of the baroclinic zone, where steeper low-level lapse rates will reside. Later tonight, as the low-level jet increases in intensity, warm-air advection will encourage elevated thunderstorm development atop a stable boundary layer across the Arklatex into the Southeast. Large hail will be the main threat with these storms. ....Central into northeast Texas this afternoon and evening... In the wake of earlier storms, a warm/moist boundary layer is expected to develop through the afternoon. As mid-level flow intensifies over TX, steep mid-level lapse rates will overspread the deepening boundary layer, contributing to strong to extreme instability (i.e. 4000+ J/kg of wide CAPE, especially above 700 mb). Mainly straight but elongated hodographs will support splitting supercell structures later this afternoon. Given the depth of buoyancy above the freezing level and 50+ kts of effective bulk shear/elongated hodographs, very large hail is likely with the more established supercells. Later into the evening/overnight hours, elevated supercell structures should persist as they approach the Arklatex vicinity, with a continued threat for large hail. ....Southern High Plains into Oklahoma this afternoon and evening... Upslope flow and the passage of the aforementioned mid-level impulse will result in convective initiation along the lee of the southern Rockies. The eastward advection of 8-9 C/km lapse rates will support at least moderate instability amid elongated hodographs, supporting supercell structures capable of producing large hail (a couple stones of which may exceed 2 inches in diameter). These storms may persist into the evening hours, with some guidance member suggesting storms may remain strong to severe as far east as central OK by 06Z. By evening, these storms should gradually become elevated, producing large hail and perhaps a severe gust. ...Squitieri.. 06/13/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .