Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1012
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Jun 13 2023 14:31:16

ACUS11 KWNS 131431
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131430=20
MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-131530-

Mesoscale Discussion 1012
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0930 AM CDT Tue Jun 13 2023

Areas affected...Portions of far southern OK...northeast
TX...southern AR...northern LA...and western/central MS

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 279...

Valid 131430Z - 131530Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 279
continues.

SUMMARY...An isolated threat for mainly hail may continue in the
short term. The need for an additional watch this morning remains
uncertain, but does not appear immediately likely (in the next
hour).

DISCUSSION...Elevated convection that developed overnight/early this
morning has generally weakened across the ArkLaTex region over the
past couple of hours. This may be occurring due to modest weakening
and veering of a southwesterly low-level jet, and as thunderstorms
intersect greater MUCIN with eastward extent into the lower MS
Valley. Even with these potential limitations, an isolated threat
for mainly severe hail may continue in the short term with more
discrete thunderstorms that have recently developed along the Red
River (OK/TX border vicinity). Ample MUCAPE (2000-3000+ J/kg)
remains present on the southwest flank on the ongoing activity
across northeast TX into northern LA. Strong deep-layer shear should
also support a continued threat for isolated supercells across the
ArkLaTex/northeast TX region. Convection that has formed in
northern/central MS remains elevated and well to the north of the
surface boundary. The need for additional watch issuance in the
short term (next hour or so) remains uncertain due to overall
weakening trends with most of the ongoing activity. But, a local
extension in time beyond 15Z (10 AM CDT) for parts of Severe
Thunderstorm Watch 279 is possible.

...Gleason.. 06/13/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-DOTq-JH0x33B8evCSbQfBUbj9NrQjJ6EzTmj5qwO4R-owNyJtepTnkM7nV3YIq1c5zsh4hiM=
y7zcoQ2rV725k_A_xM$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON   34169751 34099654 33779283 33739095 33248907 32878893
            32448908 32128986 31899208 31999450 33379664 34169751=20


=3D =3D =3D
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