Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Tue Jun 13 2023 14:03:39 AWUS01 KWNH 131403 FFGMPD ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-132000- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0476 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1002 AM EDT Tue Jun 13 2023 Areas affected...northeastern TX/Arklatex through Lower MS Valley into AL Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 131400Z - 132000Z Summary...Periods of training and repeating of heavy rain will continue a threat for 1-2 in/hr rates (locally higher) and an additional 3-4 inches through 20Z from northeastern TX through the Lower Mississippi Valley into Alabama. Isolated to scattered instances of flash flooding will be possible. Discussion...Regional radar imagery showed scattered elevated thunderstorms located across and WNW of the Arklatex as of 1330Z, with a gradual increase in cell coverage and expansion of colder cloud tops on infrared satellite imagery over the past couple of hours. The storms were located north of a surface front (13Z) and just north of the 925 mb front analyzed at 12Z within an environment containing ~1000 to 3000+ J/kg MUCAPE (12Z RAOBs/SPC mesoanalysis). While hail was present in some of the stronger cells, MRMS seemed to be representative of selected higher rainfall rates compared to ground truth with generally 1-2 in/hr, locally higher observed. Low level flow near 925 mb of 10-20 kt from the SSW was located from east-central TX into western LA, with steering flow from the WNW, parallel to the frontal boundary. East of the MS River, low level flow was oriented more from the west. Embedded mid-level impulse(s) near the ongoing convection over the Arklatex should propagate within the mean flow toward the ESE over the next few hours with low level flow backing ahead of the impulse, supporting increased overrunning of the frontal boundary and additional elevated convection through the rest of the morning into the afternoon. Additional rounds of convection will be possible late morning/early afternoon near and north of the DFW Metroplex, beyond what is currently occurring. The potential for training and repeating cells is present but the coverage of heavy rain is likely to remain somewhat localized across the region, extending from northeastern TX into MS and AL. 1-2 in/hr rainfall rates are expected where training occurs with localized potential for 2-3 in/hr rates and localized additional totals of 3-4 inches through 20Z. Isolated to scattered areas of flash flooding will remain possible. Otto ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5l6jw8fXKFq52GVgNJXZkvjVGvczaDfakOhygw7RFtZJTPgIxMN-LGOxi2BYzm4hkH30= CvKt5NRIaRe2ITgL2TSZQxc$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BMX...FWD...JAN...LIX...LZK...MOB...OUN...SHV... TAE...TSA... ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...SERFC...WGRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 34119707 33819537 33759369 33308998 33078643=20 32298518 31378597 31288744 31159065 31739316=20 32249458 32779576 33299655 33729713=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .