Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Tue Jun 13 2023 13:02:18 ACUS01 KWNS 131302 SWODY1 SPC AC 131300 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 AM CDT Tue Jun 13 2023 Valid 131300Z - 141200Z ....THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS... ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE SOUTHEAST... ....SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected today into tonight from parts of the southern High Plains to the Southeast, with large hail and damaging winds possible. ....North Texas/southeastern Oklahoma to Southeast States... Clusters of strong/locally severe storms are ongoing early this morning across far southern Oklahoma, and more so across north/northeast Texas into southern Arkansas and northern Louisiana. Episodic hail will remain a possibility early today, and a few of these clusters could pose strong wind potential even with a relatively stable near-surface layer this morning. As the moderate-strength low-level jet further veers this morning, these storms are likely to be maintained largely on the cool side of the roughly west/east-oriented front. While a bit of an intensity lull may occur this morning, the southern portion of these storms, or the remnants thereof, may more directly interface with front and immediately adjacent warm sector, which will be steadily warming and becoming moderately to strongly unstable today across central Louisiana to the southern halves of Mississippi/Alabama. Seasonably strong mid/high-level winds will support the potential for embedded supercells capable of large hail, with damaging winds also viable near/south of the front within the aforementioned zone of greater buoyancy. These storms should continue east-southeastward across the Lower Mississippi Valley and Gulf Coast states, and eventually across Georgia and southern South Carolina before moving offshore during the evening. Farther west, potentially intense thunderstorms are expected to redevelop later this afternoon along the convectively reinforced boundary across north/northeast Texas. As mid-level ridging abates and mid-level flow further strengthens, strong to locally extreme instability is again expected across central/northeast Texas. Similar to yesterday, a corridor of intense supercell development is plausible late this afternoon across north/northeast Texas, and potentially as far southwest as central Texas including the Concho Valley and parts of the Edwards Plateau, although mid-level capping is a bit more uncertain with southward extent. Where storms do develop, large to very large hail may occur given steep lapse rates and the high degree of buoyancy in the presence of very strong mid/high-level westerlies. ....South-central High Plains... Moist low-level upslope flow and daytime heating over the higher terrain/Raton Mesa vicinity of southeast Colorado and northeast New Mexico will result in destabilization and probable strong to severe thunderstorm development by mid/late afternoon. Deep-layer shear will be adequate for supercells, particularly with southward extent across northeast New Mexico and the Panhandles. These storms are likely to persist east-southeastward into this evening within the instability gradient. Large hail can be expected, and the potential for severe-caliber wind gusts could increase by evening as storms move into the Panhandles. ...Guyer/Dean.. 06/13/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .