Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Tue Jun 13 2023 08:55:45 ACUS48 KWNS 130855 SWOD48 SPC AC 130854 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Tue Jun 13 2023 Valid 161200Z - 211200Z ....DISCUSSION... Strong latent and convective instability likely will maintained across parts of the southern Great Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley late this week into the weekend. But it appears that this will mostly be beneath very warm and capping mid-level air, associated with mid-level ridging extending to the north of a prominent high centered near or southwest of the lower Rio Grande Valley. Although the predictability still seems relatively low, medium-range guidance does generally suggest that a notable mid-level perturbation and belt of stronger flow, emerging from the Southwest, will gradually progress around the periphery of the ridge during this time frame. It is possible that associated forcing and shear could support at least some risk for severe thunderstorms near the Raton Mesa vicinity northeastward into the central Great Plains Friday through Friday night. Highest probabilities for the evolution of organizing clusters probably will become focused along the mid-level thermal gradient immediately north through east of the warmer/more strongly capping air. Where this zone ends up remains uncertain, but the corridor of stronger convective potential (roughly) seems likely to shift across the central Great Plains into the Ozark Plateau (and perhaps parts of the lower Missouri Valley) Saturday, into the Mid South/Tennessee Valley and adjacent Gulf States on Sunday. Late this weekend through early next week, latest medium-range guidance appears to be trending toward the evolution of another prominent high in the southern Hudson Bay to upper Great Lakes vicinity, subsequent to mid/upper trough amplification over the interior West. This may be accompanied by generally weakening flow across much of the U.S., and a return to sparser, less organized daily severe weather potential. ...Kerr.. 06/13/2023 = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .