Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Tue Jun 13 2023 07:40:42 ACUS03 KWNS 130740 SWODY3 SPC AC 130739 Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0239 AM CDT Tue Jun 13 2023 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN GULF COAST STATES AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS... CORRECTED FOR TYPOS ....SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the eastern Gulf Coast vicinity, as well as portions of the central Great Plains, on Thursday and pose at least some risk for severe weather. ....Synopsis... While a remnant mid-level low continues a slow northeastward acceleration along the northern Atlantic Seaboard into the Canadian Maritimes, models indicate that another vigorous short wave impulse will dig from the upper Great Lakes region into the upper Ohio Valley Thursday through Thursday night. It appears that this will maintain larger-scale mid-level troughing, generally in phase with troughing in a separate branch across the Southeast. The southern troughing may amplify some near the south Atlantic coast, downstream of building mid-level ridging across the southern Great Plains, to the north of an increasingly prominent high centered near the lower Rio Grande Valley. Developments within increasingly deformed mid-level troughing, initially centered over the Intermountain West, are more unclear, but it appears that the most significant emerging perturbation may shift north of the Montana international border area early in the period. It is possible that another notable perturbation emerging from the Great Basin may progress across the Colorado Rockies into the central Great Plains by late Thursday night. Higher moisture content air may remain confined along and south of a remnant front and/or convective outflow across parts of the Southeast into the southern Great Plains, while substantially warmer and more strong capping elevated mixed-layer air continues overspreading the southern Great Plains toward the lower Mississippi Valley. ....Eastern Gulf Coast... Various model output continues to indicate that a lingering surface front/conglomerate convective outflow boundary may again become a focus for strong destabilization, beneath seasonably strong west-northwesterly mid-level wind fields across parts of southern Mississippi and Alabama into northern Florida. If this occurs, the environment will be conducive to supercells and organizing, upscale growing clusters capable of producing large hail and damaging wind gusts. However, it is still possible that convection during the preceding days could result in a shift of the primary boundary south of where it is currently forecast, and where the influences of the inland advancing sea-breeze contribute to more uncertainty. ....Central Great Plains... Steep lapse rates may contribute to at least moderately large CAPE within lee surface troughing, and ahead of a cold front advancing east of the northern Rockies. Although lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields probably will be modest to weak, vertical shear due to veering wind profiles with height may be sufficient to contribute to organization of convection developing off the Front Range late Thursday afternoon. Much will depend on the presence and strength of any possible synoptic forcing for ascent spreading across and east of the Colorado Rockies, but it appears at least possible that one or two sizable clusters of thunderstorms could evolve. After an initial severe hail threat, strong wind gusts may become the more prominent hazard while spreading eastward through the evening and overnight. ...Kerr.. 06/13/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .