Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1008
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Jun 13 2023 02:34:11

ACUS11 KWNS 130234
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 130233=20
TXZ000-130330-

Mesoscale Discussion 1008
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0933 PM CDT Mon Jun 12 2023

Areas affected...portions of central TX

Concerning...Tornado Watch 278...

Valid 130233Z - 130330Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 278 continues.

SUMMARY...Three supercells across portions of central into
north-central Texas may continue to pose a large hail risk beyond
03z/10 pm CDT.

DISCUSSION...Three supercells persist across parts of central into
north-central TX this evening. The middle supercell over Mills
County has shown some recent intensification and better organization
as it tracks near the surface front. Meanwhile, the northern
left-mover and southern right-mover have been near steady state over
the past 30 minutes or so and may be producing large to very large
hail. Regional VWP data suggest some modest increase of a low-level
jet has occurred this evening and is likely supporting continued
organization of this activity.=20

This activity is expected to become elevated with time as
boundary-layer inhibition increases with loss of daytime heating.
But isolated large hail may continue to be concern in the short
term. Some tornado risk could still accompany the middle supercell
in the vicinity of the surface boundary where low-level shear in
maximized, but this too is expected to be short lived given
increasing low-level inhibition this evening. Given trends, ongoing
watch may need to be extended or, a new, small severe thunderstorm
watch is being considered.

...Leitman.. 06/13/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!__jC_QYVPIT2Rpq0t_pUIxjbINwlcOow_7on8VNKDaCWQjXrH7OEIHsR9nEhMUyHes1RD55CM=
MYKeiph4RjU5D60zhE$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON   32359838 32579791 32459731 32199712 31659697 31089722
            31079732 30639844 30499888 30499921 30829923 31389903
            31999865 32359838=20


=3D =3D =3D
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