Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1007
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Jun 13 2023 00:50:41

ACUS11 KWNS 130050
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 130049=20
TXZ000-130215-

Mesoscale Discussion 1007
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0749 PM CDT Mon Jun 12 2023

Areas affected...central TX

Concerning...Tornado Watch 278...

Valid 130049Z - 130215Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 278 continues.

SUMMARY...The tornado risk will continue for another couple of hours
across central TX.

DISCUSSION...Three supercells are ongoing this evening across
central TX in the vicinity of a stalled front/outflow boundary.
Strong instability (greater than 3000 J/kg MLCAPE) and effective
shear magnitudes greater than 50 kt will continue to support
organized supercells capable of large hail. In the low-levels, SRH
values are maximized closer to the surface boundary where winds are
more easterly. STP value also are greater near the boundary. This is
where greatest tornado potential is expected within the next 1-2
hours if a cell can become established along the boundary. While
supercells moving more to the right of the boundary may still pose a
tornado risk, low-level shear is weaker with southward extent. Cell
developing southeastward may approach the southern edge of Tornado
Watch 278, or even move just outside the watch. However, severe
potential is expected to wane with southward extent into the EWX CWA
and a downstream watch is not expected at this time.

...Leitman.. 06/13/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!5WfE9EFiQydtaR5nusCf-62YPTVCeA7ZFtjqSBw9HwCbx3x5AuNCE-J4bLe2woDaOqrSju2XW=
AUlyciz_fEUIdPL3gM$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON   31309976 31499974 31839942 32069892 32129843 32059769
            31769725 31509710 30739715 30609790 30619875 30939940
            31309976=20


=3D =3D =3D
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